The low-pressure storm system from May 30th to June 2nd produced record-breaking precipitation in multiple towns across Montana and delivered significant rain across most of the state.

This storm produced enough rain to significantly impact SPI and streamflows across the state, providing beneficial moisture into the system. The Montana Mesonet stations recorded this event, and the impacts of this weather system are explored below.

Precipitation Totals

In the Northwest, the Flathead Valley, the Swan Range, and the Mission Mountains received upwards of 3-5+ inches of rain based on NWS reporting.

The central and southern part of the state received about 1–3 inches of rain, which will be beneficial for crop and pasture green up, replenishing stockponds, revitalizing streamflow, and improving soil moisture conditions. With the north central part of the state being in severe drought conditions, this storm provided much needed moisture.

The south-central and northeast parts of the state are the only areas that did not receive exceptionally high rainfall, with totals of 0.12 to less than an inch. With the northeastern part of the state in moderate-to-severe drought conditions and having already experienced a dust storm that eroded significant amounts of topsoil, this lack of precipitation will continue to exacerbate dry soil moisture conditions.

A few notable reports:

• Lubrecht station reported 3.44 inches of rain.
• Big Sandy SE picked up 5.74 inches of rain, north of Great Falls.
• 3.44 inches fell at the CSKT Bison Range.

SPI Impacts

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) measures precipitation anomalies relative to a long-term climatology. Negative values indicate drought conditions; positive values indicate wet conditions.

This section examines the storm’s impact on SPI (May 29 – June 2), showing changes in soil moisture as moisture infiltrates the ground.

Timescale: Looking at conditions over the last 15 & 30 days.

15 Day SPI

• Note: 15 day SPI lags a day

May 29th: Before the low pressure system rolled in.

May 30th: First day of significant rainfall.

May 31st: Second day of significant rainfall.

The 15-day SPI shows dramatic improvement from < -2.0 SPI conditions in the southeastern part of the state before the storm, which is in D3 conditions. The storm brought the surface soil moisture conditions into a (-0.5 – 0.5) normal range, which is very beneficial for this location, as they have received minimal precipitation over the last few months, and minimal snowpack. The SPI is capturing the high amounts of precipitation that the central part of the state received. This location is also in D3 conditions. This storm brought significant improvement for 15 day SPI in most of the state.

30 day SPI

May 30th: First day of significant rainfall

May 31st: Second day of significant rainfall.

June 1st: 3rd day of significant rainfall.

The 30-day SPI gives us additional context to the soil moisture conditions as the SPI was more resistant to change over this storm in the southeast and northeast. This gives an indication of how dry soil moisture conditions are in those parts of the state.

In line with the precipitation totals in the central part of the state is the significant departure from the historically average SPI for the month of May, and within two days it transitioned to completely above-normal SPI over 2.0 (dark blue). This sets the Golden Triangle up for soil moisture buffers for agricultural production, refilling stock ponds on cattle ranches, and reducing the need for irrigation at this time of year.

Streamflow

May 30th

Using the Headwaters Hydrology Project Streamflow Model to visualize the impacts of this storm show that this event brought streamflows from below 30% and normal into the 80th, 90th, and 100th percentiles for this time of year. In the Flathead Valley, this resulted in a historic flooding event. Streams and rivers throughout the region shot up into minor flood stages and high flows from the precipitation that fell. This has brought rivers in the central parts of the state, who were at extremely low flows for this time of year back into normal, or even above-normal, ranges, benefiting ranchers, irrigation, and fisheries. The southern part of the state had some relief as basins moved from the lowest flows they have experienced to flows at the 10th-20th percentiles.

Overall Impacts

The impacts of this storm will vary across the state as the system interacts with conditions that have been occurring this spring. Overall, this storm brought significant and beneficial rain that will add to reservoir levels, improve soil moisture conditions for farmers, ranchers, and rangelands.

Our crew working at a build site in 2025.

Here’s what you’ll find in the May newsletter:

• Update about our 2026 build season!
• Our precipitation and temperature outlooks for the summer.
• Our coverage of the windstorm and major rain event.
• Links to our social media.

MCO Update

• Follow our social media pages for all your MCO updates and news! Our Linktree.

• Our crews are on the road! The Montana Climate Office’s 2026 build season is officially underway. The crews are starting in Dillon and Laurin, then moving all the way west towards Ekalaka and Belltower. We will be posting on social media when every new station comes online this season. Stay tuned for when the stations are activated!

Our ground team builds a fence at the Mosby SE station in 2025.

We divide our build crews into three teams: The Ground team preps the site by building fences, digging the soil pit, and laying down the station base; the Structures team stands up and secures our station towers; and the Tech team sets up all the instrumentation and wiring for the logger box. We then run a series of QA/QC checks with our servers and get our stations activated!

In Brief

• Temperatures were above average for the month of May!
• The month was a dry one, except for the large low-pressure system at the end of the month that brought significant precipitation to the state.
• Streamflow hydrology was complex, with the end-of-month storm spiking streamflow levels.

May Report

Temperature

Montana Temperature Deviation

Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

This month has been warm across the state, with above-normal temperatures. A heat wave that hit later in May east of the continental divide brought temperatures continuously into the high 80s and even into the 90s.

One station representative of some of the more intense weather we have had in the northeastern part of the state is Medicine Lake W. This station reported high temperatures in the 90’s and was hit by a severe windstorm on May 14th. Read our post about it below!

Disastrous Windstorm Across Montana’s Hi-Line Impacts Producers

Seasonal Temperature Outlook (JJA)

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

Montana is likely to experience above-normal temperatures this summer. The western part of the state is more likely to experience abnormally hot temperatures.

Precipitation

Montana Precipitation Deviation

Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

The month of May had relatively little precipitation across the state, but the end of the month brought a slow-moving low-pressure system that provided precipitation for the entire state, with some locations receiving record-breaking amounts of rain.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (JJA)

Source: NOAA.

Montana has an equal chance of having near-normal precipitation this summer. The northwestern part of the state is leaning below normal for seasonal precipitation (33-44%).

End of May Storm

Check out our press release about the precipitation event that happened over May 30th to June 2nd. This storm brought significant rain to most of the state. Read through to look at precipitation totals, SPI impacts, and how basin streamflows reacted to this event.

Snowpack

Source: USDA Snow and Water Interactive Map.

Snowpack in Montana started below normal on May 1st and has melted out at many higher-elevation SNOTEL sites that were holding onto snow, with SWE values now below 30%. Only western Montana’s basins have SWE at 70% or higher. Notably, the state has held onto its snowpack longer than any other state in the West and the Rocky Mountain area. This could provide a protective effect against wildfire compared to the rest of the West, where the meager snowpack melted out over the last few months.

Streamflow

Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

Streamflow conditions changed throughout the month, starting with 30-year minimums across the central part of the state into the southeast, and in the northeast, with percentiles below 20%. The month continued to have typical percentiles for the west. The dry, hot weather at the end of the month lowered streamflow basins in the northeast. At the end of the month, the low-pressure system that produced significant rainfall, pushed streamflow percentiles for most basins into much higher categories, with 4+ inches in the Mission Mountains pushing streamflow into the 30-year maximums and triggering flood warnings in those river systems.

Drought

USDM Status

Source: USDM Montana Map.

Montana remains one of the only western states that has not declared a state of emergency for drought.

The eastern part of the state has had conditions deteriorate with the hot, dry, and windy weather increasing evaporative demand, that put the intensity from abnormally dry in the beginning of the month into extreme drought conditions in Richland and Dawson counties. Extreme drought conditions have extended farther into Beaverhead County.

USDM 4 Week Class Change

Source: Four-week Change Map.

Northwestern Montana has showed an entire class improvement into conditions that are normal, extending these good conditions across most of that part of the state.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (JJA)

Source: NOAA Drought Outlook Map.

Drought continues to persist across the state, with drought development likely during the summer months. It remains to be seen how much this beneficial rain system will delay the onset of abnormally dry and drought conditions in Montana.

ENSO

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The CPC issued an El Niño Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months.

We are currently in ENSO-neutral conditions. El Niño is likely to develop (82% chance) this summer and persist through early 2027. Source: the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS.

Reference

Weather and Climate — The difference between weather and climate is timescale. Weather is the day-to-day interaction of factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. To understand climate at a given place requires looking at weather trends over relatively long periods of time—months, years, and decades. In addition to studying weather, scientists examine climate trends or cycles of variability to understand the bigger picture of long-term changes.

Temperature and Precipitation — Throughout this newsletter, we report past temperature and precipitation data derived directly from the GridMET daily 4-km-gridded meteorological dataset from the University of Idaho. Temperature data are reported as seasonal averages; precipitation data are reported as seasonal total precipitation. Our three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Climatologists use the term “normal” to compare current conditions or forecasts, such as temperature or precipitation, to the past. Here, the normal value is the statistical mean (the average) for a given measurement in a specific place during a specific period of time. Climatologists use the most recent 30-year period, rounded to the nearest decade, to define normal in North America: 1981–2010. The goal is to look far enough back in time to capture variation in weather patterns, but not so far as to be irrelevant to recent conditions. In 2026, we will start using the 1996–2026 period.

La Niña/El Niño — El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When ENSO is between warm and cool phases, conditions are called ENSO Neutral. ENSO is one of several global climate phenomena that affect Montana’s weather patterns, and ENSO conditions often guide seasonal climate projections for Montana. Current ENSO conditions and up-to-date projections are available on NOAA’s ENSO website.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) — SWE is the amount of water contained within the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if you melted the entire snowpack. SWE is measured across the West by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL network of snow monitoring stations. The SWE percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in the basin compared to the normal value for those sites from 1981–2010.

Root Zone Soil Wetness — Root Zone Soil Wetness is a measure of how much water has saturated the soil. More specifically, it’s the relative saturation between completely dry (indicated by a 0) and completely saturated (indicated by a 1) between 0 and 100 cm depth. In the maps in this newsletter, soil saturation comes from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite program “SPL4SMGP” data product. Soil moisture is mapped using a combination of radar and radiometer measurements from space and surface observations at an approximately 9-km spatial resolution.

The storm affected a large portion of Montana’s dryland farming region, further desiccating a landscape already experiencing moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought conditions, and at a particularly vulnerable time of year for producers. Many producers were in the process of seeding operations, with fields exposed to hurricane force winds. Across portions of the Hi-Line and northeast Montana, winds lifted loose soil into the atmosphere, creating widespread dust plumes that reduced visibility and transported valuable topsoil away from agricultural fields. In several areas, blowing dust became dense enough to resemble brownout conditions, significantly impacting local travel and field operations.

Montana Mesonet stations are equipped with cameras that allow us to visualize the extent of the impacts. Numerous camera sites across the region captured large dust clouds moving across open farmland, with visibility rapidly deteriorating as soil particles became airborne.

The Medicine Lake weather station near Plentywood images provide a local example of the storm’s intensity, showing near-zero visibility conditions caused by blowing dust and almost an inch of wind-blown topsoil accumulated near the stations base.

Agricultural impacts from the storm are likely to be substantial. Recently planted fields experienced severe wind erosion as dry surface soils were stripped and transported downwind. In many locations, producers will suffer loss of planted seed, exposure of seed rows, and further movement of wind-blown soil that is sufficient to bury any emerging crops.

Beyond the immediate impacts to emerging crops and field conditions, this storm may create longer-term challenges for producers already managing through drought conditions. The loss of nutrient-rich topsoil threatens productivity by reducing water infiltration, degrading soil health, and increasing vulnerability to future erosion events. Repeated wind erosion events of this magnitude can diminish crop resilience, reduce yield potential, and place additional financial strain on producers.

Overall, the May 14 windstorm represented one of the more significant regional blowing dust events observed in recent years across the Hi-Line. The combination of high winds and dry soils created conditions favorable for widespread erosion and agricultural impacts across a large portion of the state.

Here’s what you’ll find in the April newsletter:

• An overview of the precipitation, drought, and temperature conditions across the state.
• The release of the Montana Mesonet phone App for Android!
• An in-depth look at spring hydrology conditions as April is a critical month for spring snowmelt, runoff, and soil moisture conditions.
• USDM Update.

MCO Update

Montana Mesonet App for Android!

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The Montana Mesonet app is now available for Android phones! This enables anyone to use the MCO dashboards with ease and check out your local stations for real-time weather, soil moisture, and snowpack data. Access all 216 Mesonet stations with more coming online this summer!

Download the Montana Mesonet App for Android here!

Look out for posts on our social media!

We will be posting all summer long, follow us for updates when our new stations come online, and learn all about the projects and tools the MCO has been working on!

Check out our social media pages!

In Brief

• April a “return to normal” for 2026 in terms of temperature and precipitation.
• CPC outlooks are predicting a warm and dry spring.
• Drought conditions have expanded in southwest.
• Spring runoff continues to be accelerated due to low snowpack.

Month Report

Temperature

Montana Temperature Deviation

 Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

Much of the northeastern part of Montana was within normal temperature ranges for April. The south and western parts of the state still held on to temperatures that were hotter than average, with the southwestern corner in the highest percentiles for the entire state, contributing to increases in the USDM status for that area.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook (MJJ)

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The CPC seasonal temperature outlook for May, June, and July has the probability of temperatures likely above normal across the entire state. The chance percentage goes down in the east.

Precipitation

Montana Precipitation Deviation

Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

The MCO Drought Data Dashboard’s precipitation percentiles for April show pockets of both higher than average precipitation above 90% for the month and lower than 10–20% of typical precipitation in these areas over the rolling 30-year averages. The surrounding areas are within normal precipitation ranges. This shows the complexity of what is occurring across the state.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (MJJ)

Source: Climate Prediction Center

The CPC outlook for precipitation is below average for most of the state. The southwest is leaning below average for spring precipitation. This, coupled with higher-temperature outlooks, indicates drought conditions will persist and worsen in the southwestern part of the state.

Monthly Precipitation Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Monthly precipitation for May is projected to be leaning below normal precipitation, which will have implications for continued drought conditions this spring. Only the Hi-Line will have equal chances for normal precipitation.

Snowpack

Source: USDA Snow and Water Interactive Map

SNOTEL shows SWE for most of the state above 70% normal as of the end of April, with a few northwest basins having snowpack above 90% normal. The Tongue River basin is at 47%, the lowest snowpack for this date in April. What is consistent across most stations, is that the high elevation areas are holding almost all the snowpack left, and the lower and mid stations are reporting low to no snowpack.

Streamflow

Source: Drought Data Dashboard.

Due to warm conditions and limited snowpack, streamflow percentiles are continuing to drop across much of the central and southwestern parts of the state as accelerated spring runoff continues. Many basins are experiencing daily 30-year minimums.

Drought

April USDM Status

Source: [USDM Montana Map](https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/(https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MT)

The USDM has updated to extend extreme (D4) drought through Pondera county, into Toole and Glacier counties, with Teton and Choteau counties maintaining their extreme drought (D4) status. In the eastern part of the state, abnormally dry conditions have spread into Wibaux, Richland, and Roosevelt counties. The southwest of Montana is still maintaining extreme drought conditions.

USDM 4 Week Class Change

Source: UNL NDMC.

Most of the significant class degradations in the last month occurred in Beaverhead, Madison, and Gallatin counties, with a class degradation extending into Bighorn County.

Class improvements have occurred in the northwestern and northeastern part of the state.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

Source: NOAA Drought Outlook Map.

Drought development is likely this spring and summer across all of Montana that was not already in drought conditions. Drought will persist across much of the state as streamflow continues to decline, while warm temperatures and limited precipitation affect soil moisture conditions.

Soil Moisture

MCO Drought Dashboard

The SPoRT soil moisture model indicates standardized soil moisture index values around -2 in areas of southwest and northeast corners of Montana suggesting conditions are much drier than normal heading into the growing season. Portions of western and central Montana as well as the area east of Billings show high soil moisture anomalies.

ENSO

Source: the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS

The transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral is expected within the next month. ENSO-neutral is favored through May-July, with a 62% likelihood of El Niño beginning in June-August and lasting through the end of 2026.

Reference

Weather and Climate — The difference between weather and climate is timescale. Weather is the day-to-day interaction of factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. To understand climate at a given place requires looking at weather trends over relatively long periods of time—months, years, and decades. In addition to studying weather, scientists examine climate trends or cycles of variability to understand the bigger picture of long-term changes.

Temperature and Precipitation — Throughout this newsletter, we report past temperature and precipitation data derived directly from the GridMET daily 4-km-gridded meteorological dataset from the University of Idaho. Temperature data are reported as seasonal averages; precipitation data are reported as seasonal total precipitation. Our three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Climatologists use the term “normal” to compare current conditions or forecasts, such as temperature or precipitation, to the past. Here, the normal value is the statistical mean (the average) for a given measurement in a specific place during a specific period of time. Climatologists use the most recent 30-year period, rounded to the nearest decade, to define normal in North America: 1981–2010. The goal is to look far enough back in time to capture variation in weather patterns, but not so far as to be irrelevant to recent conditions. In 2026, we will start using the 1996–2026 period.

La Niña/El Niño — El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When ENSO is between warm and cool phases, conditions are called ENSO Neutral. ENSO is one of several global climate phenomena that affect Montana’s weather patterns, and ENSO conditions often guide seasonal climate projections for Montana. Current ENSO conditions and up-to-date projections are available on NOAA’s ENSO website.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) — SWE is the amount of water contained within the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if you melted the entire snowpack. SWE is measured across the West by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL network of snow monitoring stations. The SWE percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in the basin compared to the normal value for those sites from 1981–2010.

Root Zone Soil Wetness — Root Zone Soil Wetness is a measure of how much water has saturated the soil. More specifically, it’s the relative saturation between completely dry (indicated by a 0) and completely saturated (indicated by a 1) between 0 and 100 cm depth. In the maps in this newsletter, soil saturation comes from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite program “SPL4SMGP” data product. Soil moisture is mapped using a combination of radar and radiometer measurements from space and surface observations at an approximately 9-km spatial resolution.

Here’s what you’ll find in this newsletter:

• MCO update
• Precipitation and Temperature update
• Snowpack, Soil Moisture, and Streamflow update
• Drought update

MCO Update

Mesonet Photo Explorer Now Live!

Screenshot of Mesonet Photo Explorer Map.

Dr. Kyle Bocinsky, Director of Montana Climate Office Extension, developed the Mesonet Photo Explorer. This interactive state map shows the entire library of images captured by the Montana Mesonet stations, searchable by cardinal direction and timestamp at 9 am & 3 pm. This is a great way to visualize what the weather is doing across the state at a glance!

Here is the MCO post sharing the new Photo Explorer.

In Brief

• Warm temperatures continue to reduce snowpack.
• The state has maintained a similar USDM status, with a slight degradation in the eastern part of the state.
• The western part of the state had above-average precipitation in the form of rain at lower elevations.

Month Report

Temperature

Montana Temperature Deviation

 Source: MCO Drought Dashboard D3.

The temperatures recorded in the Upper Missouri River Basin continue the trend for the second-warmest winter on record. This warm trend has been consistent for each month of the snowpack accumulation season, significantly reducing the snowpack at lower elevations and impacting soil moisture conditions.

The northwestern part of the state has seen a moderation of excessively warm temperatures due to repeated atmospheric river events, which have hindered temperatures from reaching as high as the southern part of the state.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook (AMJ)

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The temperature predictions for April, May, and June show that Montana is leaning towards warmer temperatures for the entire state, with probabilities being higher in the southwestern corner, transitioning to lower probabilities in the northeast corner, at equal chances of near normal temperatures.

Monthly Temperature Outlook (April)

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The monthly outlook for April is leaning above for warmer-than-normal temperatures with higher probabilities in the southwestern part of the state.

Precipitation

Source: MCO Drought Data Dashboard (D3).

The MCO’s D3 drought data dashboard precipitation percentiles over the last month show the western half and central part of the state have been significantly wetter than the last 30-year rolling baseline.

The precipitation trend has shifted this month for part of the state, with a major atmospheric river event bringing precipitation and snowpack levels back near normal ranges for this time of year. The large March snow event brought snow totals to 59 inches at Lolo Pass.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (AMJ)

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The seasonal precipitation outlook for April, May, and June shows a 33–40% chance of below-normal precipitation across more than half of the state. With only a small part of the southwest corner of the state at a 40–50% chance of below normal precipitation.

Monthly Precipitation Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center.

The monthly precipitation outlook shows that the entire state of Montana is expected to have equal chances of normal precipitation in April.

Snowpack

Source: USDA Snow and Water Interactive Map

March had a significant snowstorm from the 11th to the 14th, which boosted SWE for most of the western basins in the state, followed by warm temperatures that began melting out some of the accumulated snowpack. The pattern of high-elevation SNOTEL sites maintaining at or above-average SWE, and low-elevation sites much below normal, has held over the month. The Bear Paws are experiencing the lowest snowpack on record, at 0–3%.

Typically, April 1st marks the date of maximum accumulated SWE in the state, but with the warm temperatures, accumulation is beginning to decline sooner.

Streamflow

This will be a critical time to monitor runoff across the state. The continued lack of snow at low to mid-elevations is limiting the potential for streamflow forecasts to exceed normal values. Continued above-normal temperatures in April could trigger an early runoff season. Stay-tuned for an in depth update about streamflow conditions across Montana in the next newsletter.

The MCO’s D3 Headwaters Hydrology Streamflow product is showing that the state is experiencing complex and varied streamflow conditions. The atmospheric river that dumped many inches of snow on the 11th–14th, in the NW, coupled with high temperatures that occurred afterward, is contributing to snowmelt events that are being picked up on USGS stream gauges. The image below of Spotted Bear River shows that spike of runoff.

Drought

March USDM Status

Source: USDM Montana Map: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Drought conditions have remained steady across the state this month, with a class degradation from north to south on the eastern edge of the state. Some improvements have been D2 status removal from parts of Fergus County and Judith Basin County. Parts of Ravalli, Granite, and Powell counties have also shown a class improvement.

USDM 4 Week Class Change

Source: Four week change map by UNL NDMC.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (AMJ)

View of Montana

Source: NOAA Drought Outlook Map.

The seasonal drought outlook for March through June shows that drought persists throughout the state, except for west of the continental divide. This persistence is due to low snowpack, record heat in mid to late March, which facilitated early and rapid snow melt, as well as an increased chance of below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures during April-May-June (AMJ).

Drought development is unlikely for the state, except for the patch of yellow indicating likely development in the area south of Dillon, which is due to the prediction of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for that area.

Soil Moisture

Source: Montana Climate Office Drought Dashboard

This SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture anomaly map of Montana is showing that the southeastern corner of the state is experiencing low soil moisture conditions that coincide with the USDM drought class degradation. It will be important to monitor spring soil moisture conditions over the next few months.

ENSO

Source: the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS. Updated March 12th.

The CPC predicts a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral in the next month, with ENSO-neutral through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Reference

Weather and Climate — The difference between weather and climate is timescale. Weather is the day-to-day interaction of factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. To understand climate at a given place requires looking at weather trends over relatively long periods of time—months, years, and decades. In addition to studying weather, scientists examine climate trends or cycles of variability to understand the bigger picture of long-term changes.

Temperature and Precipitation — Throughout this newsletter, we report past temperature and precipitation data derived directly from the GridMET daily 4-km-gridded meteorological dataset from the University of Idaho. Temperature data are reported as seasonal averages; precipitation data are reported as seasonal total precipitation. Our three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Climatologists use the term “normal” to compare current conditions or forecasts, such as temperature or precipitation, to the past. Here, the normal value is the statistical mean (the average) for a given measurement in a specific place during a specific period of time. Climatologists use the most recent 30-year period, rounded to the nearest decade, to define normal in North America: 1981–2010. The goal is to look far enough back in time to capture variation in weather patterns, but not so far as to be irrelevant to recent conditions. In 2026, we will start using the 1996–2026 period.

La Niña/El Niño — El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When ENSO is between warm and cool phases, conditions are called ENSO Neutral. ENSO is one of several global climate phenomena that affect Montana’s weather patterns, and ENSO conditions often guide seasonal climate projections for Montana. Current ENSO conditions and up-to-date projections are available on NOAA’s ENSO website.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) — SWE is the amount of water contained within the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if you melted the entire snowpack. SWE is measured across the West by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL network of snow monitoring stations. The SWE percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in the basin compared to the normal value for those sites from 1981–2010.

Root Zone Soil Wetness — Root Zone Soil Wetness is a measure of how much water has saturated the soil. More specifically, it’s the relative saturation between completely dry (indicated by a 0) and completely saturated (indicated by a 1) between 0 and 100 cm depth. In the maps in this newsletter, soil saturation comes from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite program “SPL4SMGP” data product. Soil moisture is mapped using a combination of radar and radiometer measurements from space and surface observations at an approximately 9-km spatial resolution.

Open the Mesonet Photo Explorer in a new tab ↗

Using the Photo Explorer, you can browse imagery captured by cameras installed at over 120 HydroMet stations currently active across central and eastern Montana, with the network set to grow to 200+ stations by the end of 2027. These stations, funded through the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA, were designed to improve drought and flood forecasting across the Upper Missouri River Basin, with coverage of roughly one station per 500 square miles. Each one is equipped with a pan-tilt-zoom camera that regularly photographs the surrounding landscape in all cardinal directions, toward the sky, and at the snowpack.

Here’s what you can do with it:

Browse by date and time to see how conditions have changed across the season, pick a camera direction to compare that view simultaneously across all stations, or click any station on the map to open a photo gallery and get a ground-level look at what’s happening there. If you find something worth sharing — an early snowpack, a striking sky, a dry summer panorama — you can copy a shareable link directly from the tool or export the current map view as a PNG.

The Photo Explorer is designed to complement the Mesonet’s sensor data, which already tracks temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and soil conditions statewide. Together, the numbers and the images give you a fuller picture of what’s happening across Montana’s landscape.

The tool is freely available — no account or login needed. Head to mesonet.climate.umt.edu/photos and take a look.

This edition is the first in the series, offering a look at what Montana experienced this January.

Here’s what you’ll find in this newsletter:

MCO Update — What’s been happening at the Montana Climate Office this year, and what to look forward to!

2025 Review — A brief overview of 2025’s weather and climate patterns.

January Update — This update looks at how the winter has been progressing throughout January. We go over snowpack, temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions. We also provide previews of what to expect in the coming months, by sharing predictive outlooks of those conditions.

Reference — A helpful glossary of terms can be found at the bottom of this newsletter.

MCO Update:

Photo of the Belt Northwest station, installed in 2025.

The Montana Climate Office now has 217 operational Mesonet Stations. 39 new HydroMet stations were installed in 2025. This expands our network, improving our ability to provide real-time soil moisture and drought monitoring for agricultural producers and Montana communities that previously lacked coverage.

We have a busy schedule this upcoming build season! We are installing 38 new Mesonet HydroMet stations. Our crews will be throughout eastern Montana this summer, primarily in the southeastern corner of the state. The blue triangles in the image below show the planned station installations.

Map showing the distribution of installed and planned Mesonet Stations. Blue triangles mark planned 2026 station installations.

Mesonet App

Be on the lookout for the MCO Mesonet phone app! The MCO Mesonet app is in development here at the Montana Climate Office and will be available on both Android and Apple iOS!

The Montana Climate Office looks forward to debuting this convenient, user-friendly app that delivers real-time Mesonet station weather and soil moisture data directly to your phone.

In Brief

• Much of western and central Montana has experienced record warm temperatures, 10-15 degrees above normal, multiple times throughout December and January.

• January had below normal precipitation totals for most of the state, differing from the above normal precipitation in December.

• February outlook looks to be on track for realigning into a more recognizable pattern of precipitation and temperature, with equal chances of higher or lower temperatures and precipitation.

• La Niña is predicted to transition to ENSO Neutral this spring.

2025 Review

Warmer-than-normal temperatures marked 2025. A warm spring caused rapid snowmelt at high elevations, leading to lower surface water amounts in our runoff season. The state remained abnormally dry and in drought conditions throughout the summer. During the fall and early winter, temperatures were above normal, with normal precipitation, except in December, which brought high precipitation amounts to some areas; these precipitation events led to above-average snowpack at higher elevations. The warm temperatures, however, set up 2026 for mid to low elevation areas to have snowpack deficits over the winter.

January Report

Temperature

Montana Temperature Deviation

Map of daily temperature anomaly created through the climate toolbox mapper.

Montana has experienced record warm temperatures across the state this January. The central swath of the state experienced temperatures 8°F or more above normal for the greater part of the month. The northwest and northeast corners of the state have experienced temperatures on average 1-3°F warmer than normal.

An exception to this warmth was the third week of January, which brought a cold airmass into eastern Montana, with temperatures deep into the sub-zero range. Overall, this winter’s anomalous warmth and corresponding lack of snowpack could have serious future implications for wildfire activity and summer water supplies.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook Map.

The seasonal temperature outlook shows that the state will lean below normal temperatures, with the northeastern half of the state having a bit higher (40-50%) chance of below normal temperatures. The southwestern corner of Montana has equal chances of either scenario.

Precipitation

Map of total precipitation anomaly created through the Climate Mapper Climate Toolbox.

This January, the majority of the state has received 60% of normal precipitation, with most of central Montana at 40% or less of normal for the year. Only the eastern side of the state has had precipitation amounts near, but still below normal.

This precipitation trend is below December’s, which had above-normal precipitation levels across the state and some severe precipitation events. On December 10-12, an atmospheric river flooded Libby, Montana, causing a preliminary estimation of $10 million in infrastructure damage, by extreme flooding that took out roads, bridges, and damaged buildings. The cost of the damage is expected to increase. 12 inches of rain fell in a 6-day period over the area. -NWS Missoula & MT Free Press.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook Map.

The seasonal precipitation outlook is trending toward above-normal precipitation across the state, with the western half having a higher probability of above-normal seasonal precipitation.

Snowpack

Image by USDA Snow and Water Interactive Map.

December brought record-breaking precipitation across mountain ranges. With the warm conditions, most of the precipitation fell as rain, except in high-elevation areas. The above-average precipitation trend stalled out after the beginning of January and slowed towards the end of the month. This resulted in low snowpack totals at lower elevations across multiple ranges in Montana. Higher elevations are still maintaining normal or slightly below-normal snowpack levels for this time of year, with many basins above 80% median SWE.

Drought

January USDM Status

USDM January Drought Status Map of Montana

22.9% of the state is in drought (D1-D4), and 55.6% of the state is categorized as abnormally dry. With warm temperatures, snow drought has persisted in lower and mid-elevations, though higher precipitation has improved drought conditions in the northern and southwestern parts of the state.

USDM 4 Week Class Change

Four week change map by UNL NDMC.

The map above shows the 4-Week change of drought conditions across Montana from December to January.  Most of the state showed no change in drought conditions. The southwest corner has shown a pocket of improvement by 1-category, and within that, a smaller area that has a 2-category improvement.  Central Montana southward have shown a drought degradation of 1-category.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (Jan-Apr 2026)

This seasonal drought outlook from January 15 to April 30th shows that most of Montana is out of a D1 drought status, with the central part of Montana, or the Golden Triangle, holding onto the drought condition status. The surrounding area, especially west of Great Falls, is likely to have a drought removal.

ENSO

Graph from the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS.

As of January, La Niña remains, with a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is probable through at least the late spring of 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere.

Reference

Weather and climate forecasters use words and information in very particular ways that may be different from what we are accustomed to. Here is a list of terms we use in this newsletter:

Weather and Climate — The difference between weather and climate is timescale. Weather is the day-to-day interaction of factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. To understand climate at a given place requires looking at weather trends over relatively long periods of time—months, years, and decades. In addition to studying weather, scientists examine climate trends or cycles of variability to understand the bigger picture of long-term changes.

Temperature and Precipitation — Throughout this newsletter, we report past temperature and precipitation data derived directly from the GridMET daily 4-km-gridded meteorological dataset from the University of Idaho. Temperature data are reported as seasonal averages; precipitation data are reported as seasonal total precipitation. Our three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Climatologists use the term “normal” to compare current conditions or forecasts, such as temperature or precipitation, to the past. Here, the normal value is the statistical mean (the average) for a given measurement in a specific place during a specific period of time. Climatologists use the most recent 30-year period, rounded to the nearest decade, to define normal in North America: 1981–2010. The goal is to look far enough back in time to capture variation in weather patterns, but not so far as to be irrelevant to recent conditions. In 2026, we will start using the 1996–2026 period.

La Niña/El Niño — El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When ENSO is between warm and cool phases, conditions are called ENSO Neutral. ENSO is one of several global climate phenomena that affect Montana’s weather patterns, and ENSO conditions often guide seasonal climate projections for Montana. Current ENSO conditions and up-to-date projections are available on NOAA’s ENSO website.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) — SWE is the amount of water contained within the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if you melted the entire snowpack. SWE is measured across the West by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL network of snow monitoring stations. The SWE percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in the basin compared to the normal value for those sites from 1981–2010.

Root Zone Soil Wetness — Root Zone Soil Wetness is a measure of how much water has saturated the soil. More specifically, it’s the relative saturation between completely dry (indicated by a 0) and completely saturated (indicated by a 1) between 0 and 100 cm depth. In the maps in this newsletter, soil saturation comes from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite program “SPL4SMGP” data product. Soil moisture is mapped using a combination of radar and radiometer measurements from space and surface observations at an approximately 9-km spatial resolution.

Here’s what you’ll find in this newsletter:

February Update — This update looks at how the winter has been progressing by sharing snowpack, precipitation, and temperature outlooks. This newsletter also gives a preview of what is predicted to happen in the coming months.

Reference — A helpful glossary of terms can be found at the bottom of this newsletter.

In Brief

• Drought conditions have degraded across the state.
• Record warmth throughout the state in February.
• Snowpack remains a bit below average for this time of year.
• Precipitation for most of the state was below normal.

February Report

Temperature

Montana Temperature Deviation

Warm temperatures across the state occurred throughout February. Most of the state has experienced a mean daily temperature of 8°F above normal.

On February 5th, 17 record-breaking temperatures were recorded across the state, with temperatures reaching 71°F in Great Falls.

These consistently warm temperatures have kept snowpack at mid and low elevations at a minimum. This continued pattern from January will have reduced the available snowpack for the upcoming spring. Additionally, these warm temperatures have melted the top soil layer in many locations across the state, unlocking moisture but increasing evaporation. Typically, the shallow soil layers remain frozen in February, keeping critical moisture stored until the spring thaw.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

The seasonal temperature outlook map for March through May carries these unseasonably warm February temperatures into the next few months, bringing these into the normal temperature ranges for the area this time of year. The temperature outlook gives us equal chances for temperatures above or below the seasonal normals for Montana.

Precipitation

Most of Montana has received significantly below-normal precipitation, with only the central part of the state having a higher-than-average % of mean precipitation. Most of the precipitation that occurred has fallen as rain in lower elevations. This, along with unseasonably warm temperatures, can significantly impact spring runoff. Stay tuned, as the next few months will shed light on water availability, agricultural impacts, and water storage.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

The seasonal precipitation outlook gives equal chances of below- or above-normal precipitation for March through May.

Snowpack

The trend of reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures has continued to keep the snowpack medians across the state below average, with most basins about 10-20% below the median SWE. The Bears Paw and the Tongue River basin’s have the lowest median SWE, at 48% and 56% respectively. The Upper Clark Fork, Upper Yellowstone, and Bighorn basin’s have medians near normal for this time of year. Low elevation SNOTEL sites have reported minimal snowpack due to warm temperatures. Multiple individual SNOTEL sites this month have recorded their lowest and second lowest snow depths on record. The status of the snowpack continues to indicate less than optimal water supply.

Drought

February USDM Status

Extreme drought has risen to 4.2% of the state, with 13.6% in severe drought. This brings the total area in drought (D1-D4) to 56.1% of the state. Low snowpack, precipitation, and warm temperatures this month have continued to degrade conditions, particularly in the Golden Triangle region.

USDM 4 Week Class Change

Most of Montana has had degradation of 1-class compared to the end of January, with the eastern part of the state going from no drought in January to abnormally dry and two class changes in the southeastern part of the state into moderate drought status.

Seasonal Drought Outlook (March - May 2026)

The seasonal outlook for Montana has shifted from a potential improvement of conditions with a drought removal to drought persisting across the state, with most of the persistence occurring through central Montana.

ENSO

The ENSO probabilities issued February 2026 are that La Niña persists, transitioning to ENSO neutral for the spring, with probabilities of El Niño dominance beginning in the summer months.

The Climate Prediction Center defines. . .

“El Niño conditions” as existing when:

• A one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5° C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5° N - 5° S, 120° W - 170° W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, AND
• An atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (see The ENSO Cycle).

“La Niña conditions” as existing when:

• A one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5° N - 5° S, 120° W - 170° W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met , AND
• An atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (see The ENSO Cycle).

Reference

Weather and climate forecasters use words and information in very particular ways that may be different from what we are accustomed to. Here is a list of terms we use in this newsletter:

Weather and Climate — The difference between weather and climate is timescale. Weather is the day-to-day interaction of factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. To understand climate at a given place requires looking at weather trends over relatively long periods of time—months, years, and decades. In addition to studying weather, scientists examine climate trends or cycles of variability to understand the bigger picture of long-term changes.

Temperature and Precipitation — Throughout this newsletter, we report past temperature and precipitation data derived directly from the GridMET daily 4-km-gridded meteorological dataset from the University of Idaho. Temperature data are reported as seasonal averages; precipitation data are reported as seasonal total precipitation. Our three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Climatologists use the term “normal” to compare current conditions or forecasts, such as temperature or precipitation, to the past. Here, the normal value is the statistical mean (the average) for a given measurement in a specific place during a specific period of time. Climatologists use the most recent 30-year period, rounded to the nearest decade, to define normal in North America: 1981–2010. The goal is to look far enough back in time to capture variation in weather patterns, but not so far as to be irrelevant to recent conditions. In 2026, we will start using the 1996–2026 period.

La Niña/El Niño — El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When ENSO is between warm and cool phases, conditions are called ENSO Neutral. ENSO is one of several global climate phenomena that affect Montana’s weather patterns, and ENSO conditions often guide seasonal climate projections for Montana. Current ENSO conditions and up-to-date projections are available on NOAA’s ENSO website.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) — SWE is the amount of water contained within the snowpack. It can be thought of as the depth of water that would theoretically result if you melted the entire snowpack. SWE is measured across the West by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SNOTEL network of snow monitoring stations. The SWE percent of normal represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in the basin compared to the normal value for those sites from 1981–2010.

Root Zone Soil Wetness — Root Zone Soil Wetness is a measure of how much water has saturated the soil. More specifically, it’s the relative saturation between completely dry (indicated by a 0) and completely saturated (indicated by a 1) between 0 and 100 cm depth. In the maps in this newsletter, soil saturation comes from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite program “SPL4SMGP” data product. Soil moisture is mapped using a combination of radar and radiometer measurements from space and surface observations at an approximately 9-km spatial resolution.

Project Overview

Native Drought Resilience is implementing several actions outlined in the updated CSKT Climate Change Strategic Plan. A key component is the installation and maintenance of a network of low-cost PurpleAir air quality sensors throughout the Flathead Reservation. PurpleAir sensors are WiFi-enabled and continuously measure fine particle pollution (PM2.5), offering a local view of wildfire smoke, air pollution, and potential health impacts.

This network builds upon previous PurpleAir sensor deployments funded by Montana Health Professionals for a Healthy Climate (MontanaHPHC) and the Montana Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), as well as several PurpleAir sensors deployed on the Flathead Reservation by private individuals. With NIDIS funding, the Native Drought Resilience team has installed sensors both indoors and outdoors at essential community locations, including schools, health centers, and Tribal government offices.

Flathead Reservation residents can use these sensors for real-time health and safety assessments, while educators can incorporate air quality data into environmental science and health curricula such as those available from the Native Climate project.

Real-Time Monitoring

Access the real-time PurpleAir sensor data on an interactive map at the following link: https://climate.umt.edu/cskt-air-quality/. Data from the CSKT Air Quality network are also available on the AirNow Fire and Smoke Map.

Project Leadership

• Kyle Bocinsky and Maureen McCarthy (Montana Climate Office)
• Mike Durglo (CSKT, Cultural Preservation)
• René Dubay (Salish Kootenai College Extension)

PurpleAir Sensor Locations

Currently, the CSKT PurpleAir Air Quality Sensor Network includes 38 sensors deployed across the Flathead Reservation at the following locations:

• CSKT Bison Range Visitors Center (indoor and outdoor)
• Salish Kootenai College Extension (indoor and outdoor)
• CSKT Elementary, Middle, and High Schools (indoor and outdoor)
  • Arlee High School ^*+
  • Charlo High School
  • Dayton Elementary
  • Hot Springs High School ^*
  • Polson High School
  • Polson Middle School ^*
  • Ronan High School ^*
  • Ronan Middle School
  • St. Ignatius High School ^*
  • Dixon Elementary (monitors forthcoming)
• CSKT Tribal Health Buildings (indoor and outdoor)
  • Arlee Health Center
  • St. Ignatius Health Center
  • Ronan Health Center
  • Salish Kootenai College Health Center
  • Polson Health Center
  • Elmo Health Center
  • Hot Springs Health Center
  • Kicking Horse Health Center

^* PurpleAir sensor installed through MontanaHPHC.
⁺ PurpleAir sensor installed through the Montana DEQ.

Live Map

The latest data from the CSKT PurpleAir Air Quality Sensor Network is available through a live map at https://climate.umt.edu/cskt-air-quality/, or simply click on the map below:

Instrumentation

The PurpleAir Zen measures real-time PM2.5 levels and features a full-color LED for instant air quality indication. Built-in WiFi allows data transmission to the real-time PurpleAir Map, accessible via any smart device. For areas with limited WiFi, the Zen includes a real-time clock and SD card capabilities for data storage. The monitor features replaceable PMS6003 laser counters and an expansion port for future upgrades. More information about the technology used in PurpleAir sensors is available on the PurpleAir website.

Background

The Confederated Salish & Kootenai Tribes (CSKT) of the Flathead Reservation were pioneers in drafting a Climate Change Strategic Plan in 2013, updated in 2016. This plan emphasizes understanding drought impacts on forests, water and air quality, and critical resources while developing a drought management plan.

In 2020, the CSKT Climate Change Advisory Committee (CCAC) began a new revision to the CSKT Climate Change Strategic Plan. This new “living” plan outlines climate impacts and resilience actions that the tribes are undertaking to mitigate these effects. CSKT climate resilience efforts blend traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with Western scientific understanding to address climate challenges such as drought, wildfires, and extreme weather.

The CSKT Climate Change Strategic Plan has received support from The Wilderness Society, Crown Managers Partnership Hi5 Working Group, Native Waters on Arid Lands, Native Climate, and the Montana Climate Office. Implementation actions are funded through individual CSKT departments, including Natural Resources, Fire Management, the Salish & Kootenai Housing Authority, and Cultural Preservation.

Council Approval

The CSKT Tribal Council approved the installation of PurpleAir monitors as part of the Native Drought Resilience project on August 17, 2023.

Project Contacts

• Kyle Bocinsky
  Director of Climate Extension
  Montana Climate Office, University of Montana
  Email: kyle.bocinsky@umontana.edu
  Phone: (770) 362-6659

• Michael Durglo, Jr.
  Climate Change Coordinator
  Climate Change Advisory Committee Chairman
  Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes
  Email: michael.durglo@cskt.org
  Phone: (406) 261-8903

About the Montana Climate Office

The Montana Climate Office provides high-quality, timely, relevant, and scientifically based climate, drought and water resources information and services to Montanans. As Montana’s official climate data stewards, we strive to provide information for specific sectors of interest by either geography or industry, and assist stakeholders in adapting climate products to their needs. The MCO leads the development of the Montana Mesonet, a cooperative statewide soil moisture and meteorological information network that supports decision-making in agriculture, range, and forested watershed contexts. The MCO is part of the Montana Forest and Conservation Experiment Station in the WA Franke College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana.